Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.344382 5.101122 5.938294 6.931404 8.075567 9.350580 10.877192
2025-08-31 3.076554 4.061445 5.270062 6.854372 8.867587 11.330799 14.562220
2025-09-07 2.430261 3.538693 5.020965 7.129059 10.027405 13.845944 19.226104
2025-09-14 1.927646 3.057664 4.685498 7.167775 10.815185 15.926402 23.564780
2025-09-21 1.568235 2.685040 4.403398 7.188768 11.524236 17.929714 27.993666
2025-09-28 1.299676 2.386000 4.160348 7.198667 12.176453 19.881949 32.530206
2025-10-05 1.205557 2.349511 4.315456 7.841422 13.871235 23.573770 40.085886
2025-10-12 1.064661 2.199817 4.249514 8.093702 14.943301 26.378434 46.515353
2025-10-19 0.948331 2.070603 4.193279 8.343615 16.025074 29.290515 53.391547
2025-10-26 0.824947 1.901974 4.033951 8.375094 16.710624 31.582087 59.420723
2025-11-02 0.691963 1.686032 3.746341 8.115772 16.818596 32.854163 63.769114
2025-11-09 0.569444 1.466859 3.414356 7.714950 16.596003 33.486033 66.998416
2025-11-16 0.487747 1.326450 3.229519 7.598911 16.939710 35.247156 72.575146
2025-11-23 0.421472 1.209147 3.076229 7.528637 17.370891 37.228211 78.786815
2025-11-30 0.388675 1.169240 3.092207 7.833027 18.623420 40.948223 88.737262
2025-12-07 0.344790 1.089976 3.000910 7.876995 19.313721 43.593014 96.775914
2025-12-14 0.305814 1.015235 2.907440 7.900507 19.957870 46.199075 104.966030
2025-12-21 0.271470 0.945758 2.814986 7.911522 20.571597 48.794074 113.358792
2025-12-28 0.269651 0.974690 2.987349 8.612570 22.886683 55.285784 130.595951
2026-01-04 0.250580 0.944932 2.994724 8.887620 24.206476 59.692106 143.671245
2026-01-11 0.233127 0.916438 3.000870 9.160017 25.549824 64.269417 157.498413
2026-01-18 0.209850 0.862431 2.923797 9.194326 26.297025 67.543035 168.667930
2026-01-25 0.180470 0.778989 2.743404 8.911693 26.192578 68.809923 175.357353